With a paucity of open standouts and few if any horses than can be dismissed outright, this year’s Kentucky Derby shapes up as a handicapper’s nightmare. One person’s nightmare, however, is another’s possibility - or at least it can be. The opening progression is reducing the issue of playable horses to a teachable level. But even that isn’t easy.
Part of the tough nut to crack is that many of this year’s apposite Derby starters - especially the more tremendously regarded ones - have such meagre bodies of feat that it’s burdensome to certain for certain what to make of them. Dialed In, Midnight Interlude and Animal Kingdom have made just four employment starts each; Uncle Mo, Nehro and Shackleford have five, while Archarcharch, Toby’s Corner, Stay Thirsty and Santiva have six apiece. This year’s paramount prep races have been less better than usual in separating the contenders from the pretenders. The 31 graded preps were won by 29 opposite horses; only Dialed In and Archarcharch won more than one. As a result, the standing of many horses is based on a unattached performance.
None of the five Grade 1 preps produced a dominating winner: Three were won by a pure nose and two by a head. Four of the five winners were coming off losing races, and three were longshots who won at lead between 13-1 and 25-1. This year’s Derby sward is also a puzzler for those who make parentage into their calculations.
Most handicappers are apprised of the sensation the Mr. Prospector manly interline has had in late years. Since 1995, descendants of the redoubtable Mr. P have won the Derby nine times, a surprising cane charge of 56 percent. Descendants of Mr. Prospector have also dominated in the Derby starting gate, making up 37 percent of the starters over the one-time decade.
The Northern Dancer sire route has supplied another 25 percent, with Bold Ruler next at 13 percent. A check out of the sires of this year’s odds-on Derby possibilities reveals a match up of surprises. First, only two horses (longshots Master of Hounds and Watch Me Go) are seed of Mr. Prospector-line stallions, the lowest platoon in almost two decades.
Second, there are no starters by the established, leading sires Distorted Humor, Tiznow, Smart Strike, Street Cry, Unbridled’s Song, Awesome Again or the recently pensioned A.P. Indy and Storm Cat.
There are, however, starters by Bwana Charlie, Jump Start, Leroidesanimaux, War Front, West Acre and With Distinction, mostly callow stallions who had not had a Derby horse last to this year. Given the wide-open stamp of this year’s race, many kith and kin may be tempted to propel all the statistics (past performances, dart figures, descent information, and the rest) and just go with their hunches.
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